Indonesia’s national health insurance scheme (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional, or JKN) is one of the most ambitious single-payer programs in the world. Launched in January 2014, JKN has made notable progress in increasing enrollment in just a few short years. The government is committed to ensuring JKN’s ongoing sustainability, but as the scheme’s annual deficits have increased, its financial situation is receiving much attention. How can the government improve the predictability of its outlays to the scheme? As JKN continues to scale-up toward universal coverage, critical policy decisions are required to increase revenue, rationalize healthcare expenditure, and project any future deficits to ensure the scheme is managed sustainably.
This analysis, conducted by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded Health Policy Plus (HP+) project and the National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction (TNP2K), used a dynamic mathematical model to project the financial sustainability of the scheme and explore the financial implications of specific policy changes currently under consideration.